It's All Geek To Me - October 19th 2005

They like me... they really like me! Web 2.0 Recently the press – and especially online ‘zines – have given substantial coverage to “Web 2.0”. In the first week of October there was a conference of the same name that took place in San Francisco which helped propel this trend. So lots of folks have been asking me what this “Web 2.0” really is – and it isn't hard to see why they’re confused. Web 2.0 is a name that makes melodramatic people feel better.

When the dot-com “revolution” occurred in the late 90's, melodramatic people invested way too much money and immediately forgot the reality of human beings. They genuinely believed that new technology would change the world overnight. Technology surely does change the world, but at a pace dictated by how fast actual humans will start using it.

When the “bubble” burst at the beginning of this decade, melodramatic people wrote off web geeks like me as aeron-chair-using morons who could not perform basic math. Remember all those get rich with “market share” jokes? The conventional wisdom at the time was that this “Internet thing” didn't work and it was foolish to think it would.

In the last few years those same melodramatic people have noticed that the web really is working, generating solid, dependable revenue, and becoming a more significant contributor to sales across all industries. Quarter after quarter, the sales and profit just keep inching higher.

Well, that just makes no sense at all – it defies knee-jerk reactions and melodramatics of any kind. There simply “must” be an explanation for this – and it seems to me like they are calling it Web 2.0.

I am thrilled to see this – it has happened many times before. When technology is given a new name, geeks collectively sigh in relief. Geeks know that this is a sign that “they like us, they really like us”.

No one wanted a Newton, but they couldn't get enough of the Palm. Tivo sounded good but seemed expensive and unfamiliar (it wasn't), so it got it's butt kicked by the PVR set.

The Internet is on a slow but steady uphill march, becoming more efficient all the time and continuing to produce better and better financial results.

It will take time, and it will take effort – but, it is inevitable. Your own web thinking must be grounded in this reality.

I'll leave you with some of my favorite quotes from “melodramatic” people.

	"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us," --Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" --David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" --Harry M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
	"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." --The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

And, finally – someone who has the facts right but a totally twisted point of view:

“People always fear change. People feared electricity when it was invented,
didn't they? People feared coal, they feared gas-powered engines...
There will always be ignorance, and ignorance leads to fear.
But with time, people will come to accept their silicon masters.”
--Bill Gates